The 2026 NBA Playoffs tip off April 18. Here are my picks.
The 2026 NBA playoffs start tomorrow, and before we get into the picks I have to address the elephant in the room.
Two of tonight's Play-In games are still determining the 8th seeds in each conference. The Magic or Hornets will face the Detroit Pistons in the East. The Suns or Warriors will face the Oklahoma City Thunder in the West.
I've already written about how I feel about the Play-In Tournament — and tonight's games aren't changing my mind. Whoever survives to become the 8 seed is walking into a buzzsaw. Let's move on.
Here are my picks for all 8 first round series.
Eastern Conference First Round
(1) Detroit Pistons vs. (8) TBD — Magic or Hornets
The Pistons earned the top seed in the East and it wasn't a fluke. Detroit has been building toward this and they arrived this season with a vengeance. Whoever crawls out of the Play-In tonight is going to be exhausted, short-handed, and facing a full-strength Pistons team that's been resting and preparing for a week.
I don't care which team shows up. Detroit handles this in five games and doesn't break a sweat doing it.
Pick: Detroit in 5
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers
Jayson Tatum is back and playing close to his pre-injury level. That changes everything for this Celtics team — when Tatum is right, Boston is the most complete team in the Eastern Conference. They can beat you in five different ways and they've got the coaching to adjust when things get difficult.
Philly earned their spot through the Play-In and Joel Embiid will give Boston problems in stretches. But the Celtics are a deeper, better team right now and Tatum is locked in.
Pick: Boston in 6
(3) New York Knicks vs. (6) Atlanta Hawks
Nobody in the Eastern Conference wants to play the Knicks in the first round. They're physical, they're organized, they play 48 minutes of hard basketball, and Madison Square Garden in the playoffs is one of the most intimidating buildings in the sport.
Atlanta can score but they don't have the defensive discipline to grind with New York in a seven-game series. The Knicks will make this ugly and win it.
Pick: New York in 6
(4) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (5) Toronto Raptors
Cleveland has been one of the most consistent teams in the East all season. They don't have a singular superstar but they've got the most balanced roster in the conference — everyone knows their role, everyone executes it, and they make it very hard to figure out a single matchup to attack.
Toronto is a tough out but Cleveland's depth wins in the end.
Pick: Cleveland in 6
Western Conference First Round
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) TBD — Suns or Warriors
The defending champions. The favorites to repeat. And they're playing an 8 seed that spent this week fighting for their playoff life in the Play-In.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the best player in basketball right now. Jalen Williams is a legitimate two-way star. Chet Holmgren protects the rim and spaces the floor. OKC is going to remind everyone very quickly why they're the team to beat.
The 8 seed will feel honored just to be here. OKC will feel nothing but focused.
Pick: OKC in 4
(2) San Antonio Spurs vs. (7) Portland Trail Blazers
Here's your breakout story of the 2026 playoffs: Victor Wembanyama is coming for everything. The Spurs went from lottery team to legitimate contender in what feels like the blink of an eye, and Wembanyama is the reason. His combination of size, skill, and defensive instincts is something basketball hasn't seen before.
Portland will give this their best effort and it won't be enough. San Antonio is going to be a problem for everyone in the West.
Pick: San Antonio in 5
(3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Minnesota Timberwolves
This is the best first round matchup in the Western Conference. Nikola Jokić is still the most skilled offensive player on the planet. Anthony Edwards is the most electrifying young scorer in the game. Rudy Gobert will try to take the Nuggets' size advantage away. Denver took OKC to Game 7 last postseason and they're deeper this year.
I think Jokić wins the chess match in the end, but this goes the distance.
Pick: Denver in 7 🔥 Best series of the first round
(4) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (5) Houston Rockets
LeBron James and Anthony Davis against a young, hungry Rockets team that's been one of the surprises of the Western Conference this season. Houston can make this uncomfortable — they play fast, they defend, and they're not afraid of anyone.
But Davis is a matchup nightmare and LeBron in the playoffs is a different animal. Experience wins this one.
Pick: LA Lakers in 6
Conference Finals Predictions
Eastern Conference: Boston vs. Cleveland
The Celtics and Cavaliers have been the two most complete teams in the East all season. This is the series that will really determine the Eastern Conference representative in the Finals. Tatum vs. Cleveland's balanced roster — I think Tatum tips it.
East Final: Boston
Western Conference: OKC vs. San Antonio
This is the one everyone in the basketball world has been circling. The defending champions against the young upstart led by Wembanyama. SGA vs. Wemby. The best two teams in the West, the best two prospects of their generation, going head to head in a conference final.
I know the easy pick is OKC. I know championship experience matters. I know defending champions don't give up their throne without a fight. But I'm not taking the easy pick.
Victor Wembanyama is going to take over this series. He's been building toward a moment like this his entire career and this is the stage he was made for. San Antonio pulls off the upset and sends OKC home.
West Final: San Antonio ⚡ Upset alert
NBA Championship Prediction: San Antonio Spurs 🏆
San Antonio over Boston in 7.
I know. I know. But hear me out.
Wembanyama against Tatum and the Celtics is a matchup problem Boston hasn't seen all season. His size, his shot-blocking, his ability to guard anyone on the floor and create offense on the other end — the Celtics don't have an answer for him. Nobody does.
Boston will make this a series. Tatum is too good, the Celtics are too deep, and they'll win games. But Wembanyama is going to will the Spurs across the finish line in seven games and announce himself to the world as the face of the NBA's next era.
Victor Wembanyama wins his first championship. And San Antonio starts a dynasty of their own.
One note worth mentioning: it won't be a Miami Heat story this year. After all the drama surrounding their front office decisions this offseason, they're watching this one from home.
Make Your NBA Picks
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Playoffs start April 18. The 8 seeds will be confirmed after tonight's Play-In games. Come back after each round for a recap of how these picks held up.