Four teams left. Two series to decide who plays for the championship.
The NBA Conference Finals are set. In the East, the New York Knicks will face the Cleveland Cavaliers. In the West, the Oklahoma City Thunder will face the San Antonio Spurs. Here is what to expect, and where I am leaning.
Eastern Conference Finals: New York Knicks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Knicks swept Philadelphia and have looked like the most stable team in the East for the entire postseason. They are physical, deep, and locked in defensively. They do not beat themselves, and even when a game gets messy, they usually look like the sturdier team.
The Cavaliers arrive with real momentum after blasting Detroit in Game 7 on the road. That is no small thing. Winning a conference semifinals Game 7 away from home says something about a team's nerve, and Cleveland earned this matchup the hard way.
There is real upside here. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden are capable of lifting this team to another level when everything is clicking. The problem is we have also seen what happens when they are not clicking. Cleveland nearly let a 3-2 series lead slip away at home before recovering in Detroit, and that inconsistency is the core issue.
Against a Knicks team that does not give you second chances, the margin for error disappears. Cleveland needs Mitchell and Harden to be at their best for six or seven straight games. The Cavs absolutely have the talent to make this series real. I just trust New York more.
The Knicks are the right pick here. They are simply the more reliable team, and they have done nothing in these playoffs to suggest otherwise.
My pick: Knicks in 6
Western Conference Finals: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
This is the more interesting series.
OKC swept the Lakers and made it look easy. The Thunder are young, relentless, and increasingly comfortable in pressure situations. They play fast, defend hard, and have the depth to wear teams down over a series. They have been one of the most impressive teams in these playoffs from start to finish.
The Spurs are the upset pick, and I am making it.
San Antonio closed out Minnesota with a 30-point blowout in Game 6, not a team that limped into the Conference Finals, but one that peaked at the right time. The Spurs are well-coached, balanced, and built to compete in a series rather than a single game. More importantly, Victor Wembanyama changes the geometry of every matchup. His rim protection, length, and ability to erase mistakes give San Antonio a defensive ceiling that most teams simply do not have. If the Spurs can make this a half-court series and force OKC into tougher looks at the rim, that is the path to the upset.
This series could go either way. But I like how San Antonio is constructed, I like the confidence it is playing with, and I like the matchup pressure Wembanyama creates over a long series. Give me the upset.
My pick: Spurs in 6
The Bottom Line
The Knicks are the favorites to reach the Finals and probably the favorites to win the championship. If the Spurs can knock off OKC, a Knicks-Spurs Finals would be one of the more compelling matchups you could ask for, the East's most reliable team against a West team that nobody expected to be here this quickly.
First things first. The Conference Finals start this week. Make your picks at Crystal Ball Picks and let's see how it plays out.
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