LeBron without Luka. Wemby's moment. Cade's coming-out party. The best series of the playoffs. Round 2 is here.
The first round delivered Game 7s, blowouts, a 24-point comeback, and a backcourt-less Minnesota somehow advancing. Now comes Round 2 — and somehow it looks even better. Here are my picks and predictions for every series.
OKC Thunder vs. LA Lakers — Western Conference Semifinals
My pick: OKC in 6
Let's be honest about what is happening here. Oklahoma City went 4-0 against the Lakers in the regular season by an average of 29 points per game. Now Luka Doncic is out with a Grade 2 hamstring strain, leaving a 41-year-old LeBron James to carry the franchise on his back against the best team in the West.
The experts are taking OKC in 4 or 5. I am going OKC in 6 — not because I think the Lakers win this thing, but because of what LeBron is. At 41 years old, he averaged 26 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists against Houston. He is not going quietly. He is going to will this team to a couple of wins just on sheer force of personality and greatness.
But SGA is SGA. Chet Holmgren is going to feast without Luka around to punish OKC's bigs. And this Thunder team does not let up. They are going to close this out.
Give LeBron his flowers. Then watch OKC move on.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves — Western Conference Semifinals
My pick: Spurs in 5
The Timberwolves eliminated Denver without Anthony Edwards, without Donte DiVincenzo — who is now out for the season with a torn Achilles — and without Ayo Dosunmu. That was one of the most remarkable team efforts of the entire first round.
Now they have to do it again against Victor Wembanyama.
Edwards is being listed as questionable and is targeting a return for Game 3 or 4 at the earliest. Even if he comes back, how healthy is he really going to be on a bone bruise and hyperextended knee with no practice time? Julius Randle is going to lead this group as best he can, and every drive to the basket is going to be met by the longest arms in basketball.
This is Wembanyama's moment to announce himself. The Spurs are deeper, healthier, and more dangerous. Minnesota's season has been nothing short of heroic. It just ends here.
Spurs in 5. And it might not even go that long.
Detroit Pistons vs. Cleveland Cavaliers — Eastern Conference Semifinals
My pick: Cavs in 7
Full transparency: I do not fully trust either of these teams.
The Pistons came back from 3-1 down against Orlando — including a 24-point comeback in Game 6 where Cade Cunningham scored 19 points in the fourth quarter alone. That was legitimately one of the best individual performances of the entire first round. Cade is real. This Detroit team is real.
But here is the thing about James Harden — Cleveland went 19-7 in games he played this season. When Harden decides to show up and be a facilitator, this Cavaliers team is a different animal. Donovan Mitchell is one of the best closers in the league. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen control the paint.
One more wrinkle: Detroit has home court with 60 wins — the best record in the East. This series is much closer on paper than people think. The betting line opened at Pistons -120. That is not a blowout series in the making.
I am taking the Cavs in 7. But do not be shocked if Cade and the Pistons pull this off in front of their home crowd in Game 7.
New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers — Eastern Conference Semifinals
My pick: Knicks in 7
Save this one for last. Because this is the best series of the entire second round.
The Knicks are tough, deep, and playing their best basketball of the season. Karl-Anthony Towns had two triple-doubles in the final three games against Atlanta and New York has won 13 of 15 when he gets going. Madison Square Garden in a playoff series is one of the best environments in sports.
But if Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey are locked in — look out. Embiid is 17-5 all-time against the Knicks in the regular season. He came back from appendectomy surgery and helped the 76ers stun the Celtics in Game 7. He is banged up — right hip contusion on top of the surgery — and the honest question is whether he is ever truly 100 percent at this point in his career. He is the difference between a competitive series and a 76ers upset.
Then there is the KAT vs. Embiid dynamic. Two of the best big men in the East, former teammates, going at each other in the second round? This one could get spicy.
I trust Nick Nurse on the sideline for Philadelphia. He gets more out of his roster than most coaches in the league. Mike Brown is a solid coach, but Nurse is operating at a different level right now.
Knicks in 7. But I would not be shocked at all if the 76ers flip the script. This one is genuinely too close to call.
The Bottom Line
Four series. Four compelling storylines. Here is my full card:
- OKC Thunder over LA Lakers — in 6
- San Antonio Spurs over Minnesota Timberwolves — in 5
- Cleveland Cavaliers over Detroit Pistons — in 7
- New York Knicks over Philadelphia 76ers — in 7
These are opinions, not guarantees. The first round proved that anything can happen. Now let's watch.
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