The favorites are in trouble. Both of them.
The first week of the NHL Conference Finals has scrambled the picture completely. In the West, Vegas went into Colorado and won both games. In the East, Montreal ended Carolina's perfect postseason with a statement. The teams we expected to be in control are the ones playing from behind.
Western Conference Finals: Vegas Golden Knights lead Colorado Avalanche 2-0
Nobody saw this coming. The Avalanche were the best team in the West for the majority of the season - and now they are headed to Vegas down two games after dropping both on their own ice.
Game 1: Vegas 4-2
Carter Hart was the story of Game 1, making 36 saves and giving the Golden Knights the goaltending they needed to hold off a Colorado team that was supposed to be the class of the Western Conference. Pavel Dorofeyev scored his league-leading 10th playoff goal. Dylan Coghlan, Brett Howden, and Nic Dowd also found the back of the net. The Avalanche got goals from Valeri Nichushkin and Gabriel Landeskog, with Nathan MacKinnon picking up an assist.
The detail that cannot be ignored: Cale Makar did not play. The Avalanche's best defenseman - arguably the best defenseman in the NHL - was out with an upper-body injury. That is not a small thing. Makar changes the geometry of every shift he is on the ice, and his absence reshapes how Colorado can defend and how they can generate offense from the back end.
Game 2: Vegas 3-1
If Game 1 was a surprise, Game 2 was a statement. Colorado took a 1-0 lead on a Ross Colton wrist shot in the first period and appeared ready to get back into the series. Vegas had other ideas.
Ivan Barbashev scored twice, including the game-winner, as the Golden Knights came back with three goals in the third period to win 3-1. It was their fourth third-period comeback win of the playoffs. Makar missed his second straight game.
The Makar Question
Vegas's 2-0 lead is real and significant. Winning both games in Colorado is genuinely impressive, and Carter Hart has been exceptional. But this series has an asterisk until we know what is happening with Makar. If he comes back for Game 3 or Game 4, the series could look completely different. If he cannot go, the Avalanche are in serious trouble.
Colorado is not done. They are the deeper, more talented team on paper, and they still own home ice if the series gets back to Denver for Game 5. First, they have to survive Vegas. For now, the Golden Knights have every right to believe they are the team of destiny.
My series pick was Avalanche in 7. Vegas is making me look very wrong.
Eastern Conference Finals: Montreal Canadiens lead Carolina Hurricanes 1-0
Carolina had not lost a game in these playoffs. They swept Ottawa, swept Philadelphia, and entered the Eastern Conference Finals as the most dominant team in the bracket. Montreal ended that in one period.
Game 1: Canadiens 6-2
The Hurricanes led 1-0 within the first minute. Then Montreal scored four straight goals before the first period was over and never looked back. Juraj Slafkovsky scored twice and added an assist. Nick Suzuki had three assists. Jakub Dobes made 25 saves. Seth Jarvis and Eric Robinson scored for Carolina, and Frederik Andersen - who had been exceptional all postseason - was pulled after allowing four goals on 16 shots.
It was a complete performance by Montreal, and it raises a real question: was this Carolina's rust showing up after their long layoff, or are the Canadiens a genuinely better team than anyone gave them credit for?
The answer is probably both. The Hurricanes were not sharp from the jump, and Montreal was ready for them. But the Canadiens also have the talent to win this series outright if they are playing at this level. Slafkovsky is a force. Suzuki is a point-per-game player in these playoffs. Dobes has been outstanding in goal.
Game 2 is Saturday, May 23 at 7 ET in Carolina. It is arguably the most important game of this series - if the Hurricanes lose at home, the rust excuse evaporates and the real questions begin.
My series pick was Hurricanes in 6. After Game 1, I am less certain.
The Big Picture
Both series have turned, though in different ways. Vegas is a win away from taking full control in the West. Montreal proved it can match the league's most dominant team on its home ice, but Carolina still has time to steady the series. The Stanley Cup Final picture looks very different than it did a week ago.
Game 2 in Carolina is Saturday, May 23 at 7 ET. Games 3 and 4 in Vegas are Sunday, May 24 at 8 ET and Tuesday, May 26 at 9 ET. Things are moving fast.
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