Vegas is the favorite. The Ducks just eliminated Connor McDavid. Do not sleep on this series.
The Anaheim Ducks just knocked out the Edmonton Oilers. They swept the Vegas Golden Knights in the regular season. And according to one computer model, this is essentially a coin flip.
Yet Vegas is the favorite, they have home ice, and they have a Stanley Cup on their résumé. This series has everything.
The Setup
Vegas finished as Pacific Division champions and holds home ice throughout — Games 1, 2, 5, and 7 if it gets there are all at T-Mobile Arena. The series opens Monday, May 4.
The Ducks are here after one of the biggest upsets of the first round, eliminating the Oilers in six games as significant underdogs. They entered that series at +175. Nobody is giving them that kind of cushion again. Vegas opened as -190 favorites, but the NHL.com writers panel voted 8-7 in favor of Vegas — essentially a split decision. The Hockey News picked Anaheim in 7. Daily Faceoff picked Anaheim in 6.
This is not a blowout series on paper. Not even close.
The Ducks Have Already Proven They Can Win in T-Mobile Arena
Here is the detail that matters most for context: Anaheim went 3-0-0 against Vegas during the regular season. All three games ended 4-3. Two of them went to overtime. Troy Terry summed it up plainly after the Oilers series: "We swept them this year... we know we can play with them and beat them."
That is not bulletin board material. That is a legitimate data point. This Ducks team has seen Vegas up close and figured them out once already. The question is whether they can do it again in a playoff environment.
The Special Teams Battle Will Define This Series
This is where the series gets fascinating.
Anaheim's power play converted at 50% in Round 1 — eight goals on sixteen chances. That is historically elite territory for any stretch of playoff hockey. Vegas's penalty kill operated at 93.8% against Utah. Something has to give, and whichever unit wins that battle will likely win the series.
If Anaheim keeps drawing penalties and keeps converting at anything close to that rate, they are dangerous enough to take this series. If Vegas's penalty kill shuts them down the way it handled Utah, the Knights' offensive depth takes over.
The Players to Watch
Vegas: Jack Eichel led the Knights in Round 1 with 9 points and was tied for the postseason scoring lead entering Round 2. Mitch Marner added 7 points and clutch goals in the clinching game. Pavel Dorofeyev had a hat trick in Game 5 against Utah and has been a different player in these playoffs. This is a deep, experienced group that knows how to win.
Anaheim: Leo Carlsson (21 years old, 8 points in his playoff debut) and Cutter Gauthier (22 years old, 7 points, 45 combined regular season and playoff goals this year) are the kind of young players who play without fear. Jackson LaCombe was the Ducks' best player in Round 1 — 9 points, 27 minutes a night, and the defender assigned to slow down Connor McDavid. His matchup against Eichel will be the chess match within the chess match.
Goaltending: Both Teams Have Questions
Carter Hart finished Round 1 with a .898 save percentage and a 2.72 GAA. He was brilliant in overtime, stopping all 21 shots across three combined OT periods in Games 4 and 5. But he has a history of inconsistency and analysts have flagged him as a goaltender who can hurt you as easily as he can steal a game.
Lukas Dostal posted shakier overall numbers (.874 SV%, 3.87 GAA) but won Games 5 and 6 when Anaheim needed him most. This is his first career playoffs. He is going to face the toughest offensive group he has seen yet.
Whoever gets better goaltending wins this series. Neither team can take it for granted.
The Coaching Matchup
Joel Quenneville (three Stanley Cups as a head coach, 125 playoff wins) against John Tortorella (one Cup, known for intensity and defensive structure). Two completely different styles. Quenneville's Ducks play skill-based, free-flowing hockey. Tortorella's Knights are built on structure and compete level. Seven games between these two coaches would be must-watch hockey.
The Pick
Vegas in 7.
The Ducks are real. The Ducks are dangerous. The Ducks just eliminated the team that went to back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals and they did it without breaking a sweat. Do not dismiss this Anaheim team.
But Vegas has home ice, Cup-winning experience, and more depth at every position. They may have taken Utah a little lightly — the Mammoth pushed them hard and the Knights needed six games to close it out. They will not make the same mistake twice. Not against a Ducks team that just proved what they are capable of.
This series goes the distance. Vegas wins it in seven. But it is going to be one of the best series of the entire playoffs.
Make your NHL playoff picks at Crystal Ball Picks.
