Buffalo's fairy tale run meets Montreal's firepower. Something has to give.
Buffalo just ended a 19-year playoff series drought. Montreal just won a Game 7 on the road in Tampa. Two young, ascending rosters. Two of the best stories in the entire playoffs. And now they play each other.
This one is going to be something special.
The Setup
The Sabres hold home ice as Atlantic Division champions, finishing with 109 points to Montreal's 106. Game 1 is Wednesday, May 6 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo.
This is the 8th all-time playoff series between these two Original Six franchises. Montreal leads the all-time series 4-3, but Buffalo won the most recent meeting — a four-game sweep back in 1998.
Two Stories Worth Telling
Buffalo's side: The Sabres had not won a playoff series since 2007. Nineteen years of watching. Nineteen years of rebuilds. And then they went to Boston in Game 6 and won 4-1 on the road to end it. The city of Buffalo is electric. Lindy Ruff — who coached that 2007 team — is back on the bench for this one. The fairy tale is real.
Montreal's side: The Canadiens just won a Game 7 in Tampa. With nine total shots. They were outshot 12-0 in the second period — the first time in franchise history they went an entire playoff period without a shot — and still won 2-1. Jakub Dobes made 28 saves and outdueled Andrei Vasilevskiy across seven games. Henrik Lundqvist had publicly called Dobes the weakest remaining goalie in the Eastern Conference before Game 7. He just delivered the performance of his career.
Both of these teams are playing with serious belief right now.
The Goaltending Battle
This is the defining matchup of the series.
Alex Lyon was never supposed to be here. The career journeyman took over from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen mid-series against Boston and posted the best 5-on-5 save percentage of any goalie in the entire first round (.971). He went perfect on perimeter shots — 31 saves on 31 attempts. He was stopping everything.
Jakub Dobes just beat a future Hall of Famer in seven games, including a road Game 7 where his team had no business winning on paper. His 5-on-5 numbers (.921) are legitimate. He does not back down from big moments.
Hot hand vs. big-game nerve. One of those streaks is going to end in this series.
The Offensive Firepower
Montreal's star power is genuinely elite. Cole Caufield scored 51 goals this season — the first Canadien to hit 50 since Stephane Richer in 1989-90. He leads the NHL in game-winning goals (12) and overtime goals (5). His shot release is among the fastest in the game.
Nick Suzuki put up 101 points this season, the first Canadien to reach that mark since Mats Naslund in 1985-86. Lane Hutson had 78 points from the blue line and led Montreal in Round 1 with 5 points including an overtime winner. Ivan Demidov, 20 years old, put up 62 points in his rookie season playing against top competition. And Juraj Slafkovsky — the first-overall pick who took time to find his footing — had a hat trick in Game 1 against Tampa and is starting to look like the player everyone hoped he would become.
Buffalo counters with Tage Thompson (40 goals, third consecutive 40-goal season) and Rasmus Dahlin driving the offense from the back end. But Montreal's offensive depth is a tier above what the Sabres saw in Round 1 against Boston.
What Buffalo Did to Pastrnak — and What Caufield Presents
Buffalo's defensive structure was remarkable against Boston. They held David Pastrnak scoreless in Games 3 and 4 — only the fourth time all season he was shut out in consecutive games. Their penalty kill went 14-for-16 for the series.
Now they face Caufield, who is a completely different kind of threat. Faster release. Different shooting lanes. If Buffalo can contain him the way they contained Pastrnak, they are a legitimate threat to go deep. If Caufield finds his game — and he will eventually — the Sabres' defense has a serious problem on their hands.
The Bell Centre Factor
Games 1 and 2 are in Buffalo, and KeyBank Center will be rocking. But when this series moves to Montreal, the atmosphere at Bell Centre is one of the most overwhelming environments in all of sports. A young Buffalo roster playing their first extended playoff run in nearly two decades will be walking into something they have never experienced.
That is not a small thing.
The Pick
Montreal in 6.
Buffalo's run has been one of the best stories of these playoffs and they deserve every bit of credit for what they did against Boston. But Montreal has more offensive weapons, a goalie who just proved he can win on the road in Game 7, and a Bell Centre atmosphere that is going to tilt at least one game in their favor.
Caufield, Suzuki, Hutson, Demidov — that is too much firepower for a Buffalo team already missing Ostlund and Carrick in their forward depth. Lyon's hot streak will cool eventually. When it does, the Canadiens' offense takes over.
Buffalo gave this city something to believe in. Montreal ends the run in six.
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