Three weeks and counting. The groups are set. The rosters are almost finalized. And a few teams are quietly getting ready to ruin someone's bracket.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup opens June 12 at Los Angeles Stadium (SoFi Stadium). With the expanded 48-team format giving more teams more runway, the conditions for a deep run by an unexpected side have never been better. More matches, a larger knockout field, and more room for momentum to build means this is not a tournament where you can safely dismiss anyone who gets through the group stage.
Here are the teams worth keeping an eye on, and an update on where the USMNT stands with three weeks to go.
Dark Horses to Watch
Morocco
Morocco stopped being a true dark horse the moment it reached the semi-finals in Qatar in 2022. But the rest of the world still does not fully respect what this team has built. The Atlas Lions are defensively organized, dangerous on the counter, and still loaded with proven international talent. Achraf Hakimi, Hakim Ziyech, and Sofyan Amrabat give them quality at every level. With a new coach in Mohamed Ouahbi and a core that already knows what a deep World Cup run feels like, Morocco remains one of the toughest teams in the field to sort cleanly.
Turkiye
This is the team I keep coming back to. Turkiye has a history of showing up in big tournaments, the 2002 World Cup semi-final run and the 2008 Euros are still part of the national identity, and they have quietly assembled a genuinely dangerous squad. Arda Guler at Real Madrid is one of the most technically gifted young playmakers in Europe. Kenan Yildiz at Juventus gives them a finishing threat. Hakan Calhanoglu and Orkun Kokcu provide real midfield quality. Turkiye tends to be underestimated going in and overperforming coming out. Watch them.
Japan
Japan does not rely on one player or one system, and that is exactly what makes them dangerous. Under Hajime Moriyasu, they press with ferocity, transition at speed, and function with a club-like cohesion that takes opponents time to solve. They were the first non-host nation to qualify for the tournament, and that sort of efficiency says a lot about how settled they are. In a tournament where you play multiple games in a short window, teams that are organized and hard to read tend to go further than individual talent alone would suggest. Japan is that team.
Colombia
Colombia arrives at this tournament at exactly the right time. After missing Qatar, they are back in the field with a generation of attacking talent hitting its peak simultaneously. The expanded format gives them enough room to survive an early stumble and still build into the knockout rounds. Do not overlook them.
Norway
Erling Haaland at a World Cup, surrounded by a system built specifically to maximize him. Martin Odegaard gives Norway a genuine creative engine alongside the most lethal finisher in the sport. The question has always been whether the supporting cast is strong enough over seven games. This year, the answer is closer to yes than it has ever been.
USMNT Update: Cardoso Out, Roster Coming May 26
The biggest USMNT news of the week did not come from the training pitch. It came from a surgeon.
Johnny Cardoso, the Atletico Madrid central midfielder who had become one of the most important players in Mauricio Pochettino's setup, is expected to miss the World Cup after right ankle surgery. It is a significant blow. Cardoso brought a physicality and defensive discipline to the midfield that is not easy to replace, and Pochettino will now have to rework his plans in the middle of the park with less than four weeks until the opening game.
The Pulisic situation, by comparison, is looking more manageable. His gluteal strain was reportedly minor, and the expectation is that he will be available for the friendlies against Senegal on May 31 in Charlotte and Germany on June 6 in Chicago. Those two games become even more important now, not just for Pulisic to find form, but for Pochettino to figure out what his midfield actually looks like without Cardoso.
Pochettino names his 26-man roster on May 26. That announcement will tell us a lot about how he plans to solve the Cardoso problem and who he trusts to fill the void. We covered the Pulisic question in depth last week, and the roster reveal will be the next big piece of the puzzle.
The Bigger Picture
The 2026 World Cup is three weeks away. The tournament has 48 teams, a new format, and more paths to the final than any previous edition. That means more room for the teams above to make noise, and more room for the USMNT to be tested earlier and harder than it expects.
The dark horses are not just stories for neutrals. Every one of them is a potential obstacle for someone. And in an expanded field, the road to the final is longer, more unpredictable, and more interesting than it has ever been.
Follow the USMNT's World Cup journey and make your soccer picks at Crystal Ball Picks.
